Lord Toranaga has made a major decision in Shōgun episode 7, but not even his closest allies might be aware of his real plan to defeat Ishido.

Lord Toranaga is heading to Osaka to turn himself in after the events of Shōgun episode 7, but his surrender does not mean that Ishido has won the war just yet. While Toranaga’s allies were hoping that Lord Saeki’s army was going to join them in the mission to attack Osaka, Toranaga’s brother was already aligned with Ishido and led them to a trap. Toranaga was informed by his brother that he had to return to Osaka and submit himself to the Council of Regents, which he surprisingly accepted.

Even though Toranaga would not have the numbers to beat Ishido without his brother’s army, his allies were shocked to see Yoshii announcing his surrender. If Toranaga goes to the Osaka castle by himself, he will be officially impeached and killed by Ishido, who is working for the Heir’s mother Ochiba-no-kata. This makes Toranaga’s decision quite difficult to comprehend at first, but a broader analysis indicates he is doing the right thing and might still have a chance to come out on top after the events of Shōgun episode 7.

Lord Toranaga’s Decision To Surrender In Shōgun Episode 7 Explained

Toranaga agreed to return to Osaka and turn himself in

As soon as Lord Toranaga realized his brother had betrayed him and was now working with Ishido, he knew it would be impossible to launch a successful attack on Osaka. As pointed out by Toda Hiromatsu at the beginning of the episode, the Crimson Sky plan was only going to work if Toranaga and Saeki joined forces, which did not happen. Without his brother’s army, Toranaga would simply not have enough men to defeat Ishido in Osaka. With his men now cornered in Ajiro, Toranaga did not have much of a choice and had to announce his surrender.

Character
Actor
Real-Life Inspiration

Yoshii Toranaga
Hiroyuki Sanada
Tokugawa Ieyasu

John Blackthorne
Cosmo Jarvis
William Adams

Toda Mariko
Anna Sawai
Hosokawa Gracia

Kashigi Yabushige
Tadanobu Asano
Honda Masanobu

Kashigi Omi
Hiroto Kanai
Honda Masazumi

Ishido Kazunari
Takehiro Hira
Ishida Mitsunari

Ochiba-no-kata
Fumi Nikaido
Yodo-dono

In Shōgun episode 6, Toranaga initially refuses to consider using Crimson Sky because it could turn into a suicide mission given their numbers. According to Toranaga, he would not march to death alongside his men. Even though he changed his mind after learning of Sugiyama’s assassination, Toranaga’s plan could only work if he had the help of his brother. Had the Lord of Kanto refused to turn himself in, his men would have entered a war that they could not win, hence Toranaga’s surrender. His decision, however, was not well received by everyone.

Why John Blackthorne Was So Upset With Toranaga & His Allies

Blackthorne can’t believe Toranaga is giving up

All of Toranaga’s advisors were surprised by his decision to turn himself in, but John Blackthorne was particularly bothered by it. The Anjin made his discontentment clear by saying, in Japanese, that they were all going to die if the lord were to surrender. Even though Blackthorne was not too excited about being part of this war, especially not as the general of the cannon regiment, he had pledged his loyalty to Toranaga and was ready to fight his enemies. Additionally, with Toranaga dead, everything he and Blackthorne were trying to achieve was going to fail.

If Ishido wins, the Council of Regents will continue to be close to the Portuguese, whose plans for the region Blackthorne has been trying to get in the way of since the beginning of the show. Blackthorne is aware that most of Toranaga’s allies will be killed if Ishido wins, including himself. While Lord Toranaga’s decision makes sense in terms of numbers, his surrender feels like a major defeat for those who were supporting him, even though the actual war had not started yet. That said, there may be more to Toranaga’s decision than it seems.

Did Lord Toranaga Know Saeki Was Made The 5th Regent?

Toranaga may have anticipated Saeki’s ambush

Toranaga did not seem too surprised when his brother revealed his betrayal, suggesting he was already expecting that something like that could happen. Ishido could easily predict that Toranaga was going to ask his brother for help, so it was only a matter of which one of them was going to get to Saeki first. With Sugiyama dead, Ishido had one spot left in the Council of Regents to use as leverage in a negotiation, which is why Saeki’s betrayal is not really surprising. Additionally, Toranaga and his brother hadn’t spoken for years.

Perhaps no one, not even Hiromatsu, knows what Toranaga’s plan really is.

It is strange that Toranaga let his army be ambushed in Anjiro when he had so much intel coming from all regions. Gin, the owner of the Willow World brothel, even pointed out that it would have been easy for Toranaga to avoid Saeki’s ambush. Leaving the area undefended for his brother to swear in might not have been a mistake after all. It would not be the first Toranaga was playing the long game, letting himself be put in a position of danger only to come back stronger. Perhaps no one, not even Hiromatsu, knows what Toranaga’s plan really is.

How Lord Toranaga’s Decision To Surrender Could Be A Part Of His Grand Plan

Toranaga’s real plan is still a mystery

Considering that Toranaga was not interested in launching a direct attack on Osaka in the first place, his decision to surrender may be part of a larger plan that involves reducing bloodshed and taking the fight to Ishido. Assuming that Toranaga was aware that his brother had been offered a seat in the council, it would be foolish to think they could still be successful with Crimson Sky. Toragana could have put a new plan in motion as soon as he learned of Saeki’s new allegiances, meaning everything that happened in Shōgun episode 7 might’ve been a play.

Given how Toranaga would have no reason to keep Blackthorne’s men as hostages now that the Anjin is his hatamoto, he may have bigger plans for the Englishmen and their ship.

The historical figure Lord Toranaga is based on, plus the events of the Shōgun novel, suggest the character’s journey is not over yet. Still, it will be interesting to see how Toranaga will get out of the delicate situation he has put himself in. Yoshii even let his will prepared to show everyone he was fully ready to die. Of course, this could all be an act so that his enemies never suspect he is plotting something. Regardless, Toranaga’s next moves are difficult to predict, but they will define the fate of the country.

Interestingly, Toranaga has refused to discuss John Blackthorne’s ship and crew for several episodes now. Given how Toranaga would have no reason to keep Blackthorne’s men as hostages now that the Anjin is his hatamoto, he may have bigger plans for the Englishmen and their ship. Blackthorne’s men and their weapons could be Lord Toranaga’s trump card in Shōgun’s war – secret assets that Ishido will not be prepared to deal with. Should that be the case, then Toranaga’s surrender is not a defeat but rather a ploy to cause Ishido and the Regents to lower their guards.